Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 42.078690 46.067307 50.488592 55.797493 62.059958 69.291088 78.391264
2025-03-02 35.654291 40.728948 46.770426 54.644346 64.877214 78.101350 97.181587
2025-03-09 31.931656 37.470898 44.377776 53.896185 67.161349 85.863381 116.150451
2025-03-16 28.741204 34.327638 41.511636 51.800305 66.876892 89.580279 129.969174
2025-03-23 27.617072 33.635742 41.648233 53.644998 72.314880 102.863995 164.614149
2025-03-30 25.985264 32.074926 40.379067 53.212679 74.092059 110.529447 192.520025
2025-04-06 24.505296 30.577130 39.020799 52.418606 75.060029 116.905561 221.229829
2025-04-13 22.899641 28.779633 37.064379 50.447459 73.668130 118.385926 238.923875
2025-04-20 22.478121 28.612593 37.461049 52.228517 79.144410 135.292036 313.706701
2025-04-27 21.998806 28.317156 37.621924 53.615308 84.135278 153.002969 415.379540
2025-05-04 21.464626 27.897863 37.544849 54.566557 88.443028 170.889344 553.930631
2025-05-11 20.707740 27.096607 36.799919 54.244674 90.048180 182.375003 691.781387
2025-05-18 19.909630 26.225901 35.940579 53.736413 91.427695 194.788562 896.607941
2025-05-25 19.057614 25.233464 34.826063 52.660466 91.401735 203.241214 1129.527650
2025-06-01 18.348962 24.424266 33.956940 51.955663 92.117469 214.787827 1524.568414
2025-06-08 17.464256 23.299774 32.496458 49.977939 89.450140 213.136771 1718.765832
2025-06-15 17.303383 23.299519 32.919506 51.718804 96.330797 252.748025 4365.197109
2025-06-22 16.790353 22.713883 32.303461 51.311007 97.611161 270.425365 9390.487849
2025-06-29 16.257725 22.073379 31.555242 50.561674 97.842762 283.789225 26898.026158
2025-07-06 15.582124 21.177605 30.318622 48.699898 94.699757 278.375815 42221.947374
2025-07-13 15.496025 21.230981 30.749160 50.382238 101.977726 336.707167 NaN
2025-07-20 15.352704 21.182376 30.992490 51.690802 108.580472 403.444818 NaN
2025-07-27 15.156082 21.035598 31.047014 52.587712 114.202827 476.572723 NaN